climate change and variability impact in basin’s runoff with interference of tow hydrology models uncertainty

نویسندگان

علیرضا کمال

علیرضا مساح بوانی

چکیده

abstarct development of greenhouse gases in future periods not only causes change in average amounts of climate variables but also makes variables of this variability affected. then for sure concerning alternations followed with climate variables’ fluctuations and its average amounts in effecting on runoff would make more reliable results. in this inquiry initially fluctuations and average amounts of climate variables of gharesuo basin were simulated by hadcm3-a2 model and statistical downscaling method in 2040-2069 periods. although to mention climate fluctuation’s uncertainty in calculations, they acted to simulate 100 time series of temperature and precipitation variables for future period. results showed that uncertainty confine of region’s climate fluctuations has increased 0.5 to 2c° in temperature and 10 to 20mm changing in precipitation in different months of year. after that and to mention hydrology model’s uncertainty, two rainfall-runoff models of simhyd and ihacres are used. these two models calibration for base period and introducing 100 time series of climate variables produced in last level into both models specified the basin runoff’s changing confine for 2040-2069 period. results declare the coordination of two models in region’s runoff changes. as both models estimate runoff abatement for fall season and enlargement for other seasons. finally the results of this inquiry estate the effect of hydrology model’s uncertainty and less effect of climate variability in estimating a basin’s runoff under impact of climate change.

برای دانلود باید عضویت طلایی داشته باشید

برای دانلود متن کامل این مقاله و بیش از 32 میلیون مقاله دیگر ابتدا ثبت نام کنید

اگر عضو سایت هستید لطفا وارد حساب کاربری خود شوید

منابع مشابه

Modelling Runoff and Impact of Climate Change in Large Himalayan Basins

The runoff regime in the basins of the rivers Ganges (917’444 km2) and Brahmaputra (547’346 km2) is modelled from precipitation, remotely sensed snow covered areas and temperatures. The runoff cycle roughly corresponds to a calendar year. In view of the small proportion of snowmelt, it is mainly governed by the distribution of rainfalls resulting in flow peaks in the summer and recession flow i...

متن کامل

The Impact of Climate Change on Grain Yield and Yield Variability in Iran

In this paper, we have examined the effect of climate variables on the yield average and variability of major grain crops (rice, maize, and wheat) in Iran from 1983 to 2014. For this purpose, we made use of the Just and Pope Production Function crop yields panel data. The results revealed that the influences of climate variables were different in the crops. The time trend positively influenced ...

متن کامل

Impacts of Climate Change on Hydrology and Water Resources in the Boise and Spokane River Basins

In the Pacific Northwest, warming climate has resulted in a lengthened growing season, declining snowpack, and earlier timing of spring runoff. This study characterizes the impact of climate change in two basins in Idaho, the Spokane River and the Boise River Basins. We simulated the basin scale hydrology by coupling the downscaled precipitation and temperature outputs from a suite of global cl...

متن کامل

Uncertainty Investigation of Precipitation and Temperature Scenarios for the Sira Basin under Climate Change Impact

Results of assessment of the future climate change impacts is associated with some uncertainties. Considering the range of uncertainties increases reliability of the results. In this study, climate change impacts on daily precipitation, maximum and minimum temperature of Sira basin are assessed using LARS-WG model, for 2036-65 period. Accordingly, uncertainty of new emissions scenarios (RCP2.6،...

متن کامل

Simulation of the climate change impact on monthly runoff of Dez watershed using IHACRES model

Identification and analysis of flow fluctuations in consequences of climate change is one of the most important factors in water resources management planning and this is vital especially in areas where large crowds are engaged in agriculture. Dez watershed, as an agricultural hub in the country, is one of areas that river flow fluctuations caused by climate change can affect a large population...

متن کامل

منابع من

با ذخیره ی این منبع در منابع من، دسترسی به آن را برای استفاده های بعدی آسان تر کنید


عنوان ژورنال:
آب و خاک

جلد ۲۴، شماره ۵، صفحات ۰-۰

میزبانی شده توسط پلتفرم ابری doprax.com

copyright © 2015-2023